I’m going to call it right now, and believe me, I hope I’m wrong, but I think Roy Moore is going to win the Senate special election in Alabama. See, a poll was released yesterday saying that Doug Jones had overtaken Roy Moore 46% to 42% and while that looks good, roughly 9% said they were undecided. In other words, the poll shows that Roy Moore is still well within a winnable margin.
One of the reasons that the we were so shocked by Trump’s win in 2016 was that all the polling data seemed to show a sure Clinton win. What actually threw the polling data off was a high number of people who reported they were undecided. A higher percentage than in most of our recent elections, and what we have found out since then is that many of those undecided voters were really just ashamed to say they would vote for Trump. Traditionally undecided voters lean slightly Democratic in elections, but last year that was distinctly not the case.
It’s an issue known to pollsters as social acceptability bias. Even when someone doesn’t know the person asking them a question, they want to seem likeable, they want to be part of the group, and they certainly don’t want to say anything that makes them look bad. I think this is actually pretty revealing. These people knew that voting for Trump was in some way distasteful, and sought to hide it. They knew, that Trump was a deeply flawed person, so they chose to not say who they would vote for.
I think we are likely seeing the same thing here. I think that although now many Alabama Republicans are ashamed to say they will vote for Moore, they still will, if they show up at the polls on election day. Yes, there will definitely be a number of Republicans who do the right thing, there will also be plenty who claim this is all fake news propagated by the Soros, Clinton, Jew Hitler Commie lie machine that is the media, but the worst of all are those who believe the accusers, but vote for Moore anyway.
We’ve heard from a number of religious and political leaders over the last few days trying to defend Moore, whether it be by saying it’s ok because Mary was only a child when she had Jesus, or by claiming it was consensual, all those attempts to normalize this behavior are despicable, but it is no surprise that most of those trying to justify it are Evangelical Christians.
That’s not to say that other Christians are free from child molesters, insert catholic priest joke here, but the Evangelicals are mainly the party at play here in Alabama. In another poll 37% of evangelicals asked said the allegations actually made them more likely to vote for Roy Moore. Now I’m not saying it’s because all of them support child molestation, I’m implying it, but beyond that, many of them believe Trump’s fake news lie, they’ve completely bought into the unbelievable explanations and bullshit that Donald Trump spews.
They’ve expanded their blind faith from merely their religion to their politics. Any word from his mouth is Gospel, and his assault on the media has become their new dogma. In Trump’s world any news that doesn’t glorify him is heresy, and the evangelicals are itching to start their own inquisition.